Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea

Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading

The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.

Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.

Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.

The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero

Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?

Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.

Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.

(责任编辑：百科资讯)

• ·日本亚马逊、乐天帮助乌克兰政府出售武器，震惊全国
• ·Matcha聚合交易所
• ·出售无形资产怎么会计处理
• ·meme币苹果下载地址 meme币最新版官方下载链接
• ·气候什么河什么显著-气候河流
• ·芝麻交易所/易欧交易所下载-易欧交易平台OTCv6.6.82023抢先下载
• ·投影仪属于固定资产哪一类
• ·北方股份将于11月18日召开股东大会，审议续聘会计师事务所的议案
• ·Chainlink 可能突破 16.5 美元，但这一阻力位对 LINK 构成压力
• ·芝麻交易所/易欧交易所下载-易欧交易平台OTCv6.6.82023抢先下载
• ·火币网李林
• ·克而瑞：百强房企10月业绩环比增长73% 年内首次实现单月同比正增长
• ·如何应对市场行情暴跌？
• ·涨停揭秘 | 新亚制程2连板涨停，封板资金5401.83万元
• ·BTC价格竞猜游戏
• ·涨停揭秘 | 国创高新首板涨停，封板资金4370.92万元