Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea
Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading
The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.
Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.
Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.
Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.
The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero
Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?
Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.
Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.
(责任编辑:商业)
- ·最新版元宝币钱包
- ·Alex Mashinsky面临Celsius破产的“事实终身监禁”争议
- ·干旱是什么变成什么
- ·蝴蝶币价格
- ·福利部门领用原材料的分录怎么做
- ·零币价格走势
- ·玩比特币用什么软件 十大数字货币交易平台app下载
- ·2017如何挖矿
- ·气温什么什么的
- ·中国人寿意外险覆盖哪些种类的意外保障?
- ·穆迪:DePIN 技術展現出潛力,但實施上仍面臨多項障礙
- ·里昂:预期比亚迪第四季每车净利润将持续改善 重申“跑赢大市”评级
- ·火币买卖
- ·鲨之信价格
- ·从 08 年金融危机看再质押市场:流动性不足+杠杆风险,带来潜在的“次贷危机”
- ·顺灏股份收盘涨5.59%,主力资金净流入3190.18万元
- · 亿欧app下载
- · okx交易所app官网链接
- · okcoin下载官方app
- · 虚拟货币交易
- · 欧亿交易所怎么样。
- · okx官方
- · 加密货币交易所
- · oe交易所app下载
- · 欧易正规
- · 欧易最新版本
- ·Solana 第二代手機「Seeker」預購量突破 14 萬台,預計 2025 年中推出
- ·南国置业收盘涨4.41%,主力资金净流入3009.92万元
- ·爱挖币软件下载
- ·meme币苹果下载地址 meme币最新版官方下载链接
- ·LayerZero collaborates with multiple institutions such as a16z to launch the lzCatalyst program, supporting the development of ecological protocols
- ·屎币可能涨到一毛吗-讨论屎币涨到一毛的可能性
- ·Tradoor完成320万美元融资将推文本交易功能
- ·聚币网怎么了 聚币网怎么样
- ·汇算清缴调整未取得发票暂估材料账务处理
- ·鸿博股份收盘涨5.28%,主力资金净流入3688.38万元