The impact of Celestia's TIA unlocking and the over-the-counter trading behind it
- Title: "TIA - an OTC story" Author: Taran Sabharwal, founder of the cryptocurrency over-the-counter trading platform STIX Compiled by: Zombiet
Overview of Net New Supply as of October 31, 2024
We use on chain data (via Celerium API) to accurately determine how unlocking dynamics may shape TIA's price trend in November. The above table shows the results, and we have concluded that a total of $92.3 million TIAs will enter circulation after unlocking, which will become the upper limit of overall spot selling pressure.
The $TIA has a 21 day staking period, and those who wish to unlock the trading TIA on October 31st have already released the staking. The total number of unsecured tokens, tokens in the 21 day staking queue, and approximately 24.1 million tokens that have not been counted is equal to 92.3 million TIAs.
This is equivalent to a maximum selling pressure of approximately $460 million. Equally interesting is that this accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocking volume, which means the selling pressure is only half of what people expected.
Another interesting data is that the ratio of the (actual) increase in circulation supply to the current circulation supply is 41.8%.
The first wave of unlocked tokens was sold to OTC (over-the-counter) buyers who hedged on perpetual contracts, resulting in a surge in open interest over the past few months. We expect these large short positions to continue closing, partially offsetting the pressure of spot selling. This capital reset may be a bullish signal for spot buyers.
The assumption in our analysis is that buyers in OTC rounds have 11 million TIA cliff unlocks, which are included in non collateralized buckets (these tokens come from vault wallets and have not been marked on the browser). We have drawn a total of 292 attributed wallets, some of which were not fully drawn. We have included this gap in the non pledged buckets.
History of $TIA OTC on STIX
Undoubtedly, Celestia is one of the most actively traded assets off the exchange during this cycle, mainly because in the early stages of the cycle, it provides an early bullish opportunity for buyers who crave directional trading. Sellers were also incentivized by a large amount of unrealized profits and losses, and did not anticipate the upcoming bull market (Q3 2023).
In the first quarter of 2024, the bull market has matured and the $TIA has risen above $20. At this time, there is very little off exchange trading activity because sellers are unwilling to accept larger discounts (over 40%), and buyers do not want to bid above the upper limit of $8.5. We hardly saw any activity because the seller "feels" wealthy and wants to maintain risk exposure, even if there is an opportunity to achieve investment returns of 100 to 800 times.
When $TIA fell below $5, the situation changed, and this was also the time when the Celestia Foundation began raising $100 million through OTC at a price of $3. The buyer's attribution criteria are the same as those for private investors - unlocking 33% on October 31st (less than 2 months from the round) and linear unlocking for 12 months.
In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, $TIA's over-the-counter trading activity was very active, and sellers unloaded multiple positions. We traded a large quantity of tokens for the first wave of unlocking and the entire unlocking process. As for STIX, the total transaction volume of $TIA since July is approximately $60 million, which may indicate that the actual transaction volume through various liquidity channels is over $80 million (assuming STIX holds 75% of the OTC market share).
summary
Short positions will continue to close until unlocked, and funding rates may be reset to 0 or positive. Those who missed the deadline for releasing their pledge on October 9th may have already released their pledge in October, leading to a further increase in spot supply in November (ready to be sold). In any case, the supply shock is enormous and one of the most widely spread unlocking events of this cycle, coupled with suppressed off exchange trading discounts, may create significant market volatility for the coin.
Related articles: "Even without unlocking, you can still make a profit! Celestia seed round investors can recoup their investment every 3.5 days by staking rewards" "Celestia just announced the completion of a $100 million financing, and institutions are about to unlock it
(责任编辑:商业观察)
- ·排名前十的主流币有哪些?盘点全球十大主流虚拟货币
- ·2025年最新的虚拟数字货币交易所!最新2025年虚拟币交易所排行榜!
- ·买比特币的app哪个好?盘点十大买比特币的app
- ·柚子币价格最新消息(柚子币今日价格行情走势)
- ·轻松给照片加文字的5种方法_如何在照片上加文字
- ·新疆交建(002941.SZ)拟与景橡公司签订解除协议
- ·桂林火车南站在哪里-桂林火车南站在哪里坐车
- ·涨停揭秘 | 云南锗业首板涨停,封板资金567.54万元
- ·六安哪里有樱桃园-六安哪里有樱桃园景区
- ·btc交易所排名 做合约最好的交易所TOP榜2025
- ·虚拟货币四大平台 十大虚拟货币交易平台网址下载
- ·大陆能用ADA币客户端是哪个?国内正规ADA币客户端iOS排行榜
- ·欧意从何下载?okx软件保姆级下载教程
- ·官方手机哪里下载狗币交易中心 狗币交易所官方app安卓版
- ·NXPC代币特点_通过币安申购NXPC币
- ·huobi软件下载官方 huobi哪里下载有邀请码
- ·正规官方BTC官方网站有哪些?全球热门BTC官方网站十大盘点
- ·比特币SV今日价格 比特币SV实时价格走势图
- ·洁雅股份:拟对接国际品牌供应链业务,未来利润增长主要依赖存量业务和新品类拓展
- ·甬硅电子:2024年以来营业收入快速增长,未来两年将持续投入先进封装领域,研发费用率将维持在6%
- ·4月到底有几天?别数了,告诉你答案!4月份多少天
- ·2025全球交易所排名TOP榜 20259大虚拟货币交易平台排名
- ·fil最新利好消息-Filecoin的最新利好消息
- ·洁雅股份:拟对接国际品牌供应链业务,未来利润增长主要依赖存量业务和新品类拓展
- ·BNB现在多少钱一枚?BNB实时价格行情走势(7月18日)
- ·信音电子将于12月2日召开股东大会,审议变更会计师事务所等议案
- · 全球三大虚拟货币交易平台
- · 虚拟货币交易平台排名
- · okx交易所app官网链接
- · 数字货币交易所
- · okx官方
- · okcoin下载官方app
- · 虚拟货币交易平台排名
- · 虚拟货币交易平台有哪些
- · 易欧app官网下载
- · 欧亿app官网正式版下载